The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has alerted governments all over the world. The more transmissible new strain has necessitated a rethinking of the pandemic’s current projections. The third wave of COVID-19 is predicted to impact India early next year, between January and February 2022. The project’s director, Professor Manindra Agrawal, made the announcement on Saturday, December 4.
According to specialists who have been modelling the epidemic, India might witness a weak Covid-19 third wave that peaks in the early part of next year.
The Sutra mathematical model for Covid-19, built by IIT Kanpur and supported by the Indian government, has indicated that the third wave would most likely impact India early next year, between January and February 2022. The project’s director, Professor Manindra Agrawal, unveiled the Sutra model’s findings and the conclusions that resulted from them.
However, contrary to previous South African studies, the wave is expected to be weaker since the new variety of concern does not appear to overcome the inherent Covid-19 immunity in humans in any major way, according to Prof Agrawal.
Mild Lockdown
He also mentioned that a light lockdown, with a night curfew and crowding limitations, may help to reduce the magnitude of the prospective next wave. “These steps will diminish the wave’s peak value,” he stated. Meanwhile, famous epidemiologist Dr Jayaprakash Muliyil, Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the ICMR-National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), has separately said that he has found no evidence that the Omicron variant was a virus of significance.
What’s his Opinion
According to Manindra Agrawal, incidences of the new variation Omicron would surge early next year, around the time of the Assembly elections in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur.
He further stated that, globally, the Omicron variety is not causing severe illness, but rather a moderate infection. So far, the evidence shows that the variation produces very modest symptoms, despite the fact that its transmissibility appears to be considerable.
Although a recent South African study found that the Omicron version bypasses natural immunity at three times the rate of the Delta variant, Professor Agrawal believes that even this higher rate of the bypass is insufficient to have a role in driving up infections.
The IIT-K researchers created three scenarios depending on the efficiency of vaccination protection against the novel variation in their investigation. The data showed a “moderate third wave,” with a peak of 100-150K infections per day occurring somewhere in February, according to Prof Agrawal. According to the mathematical model, the hospitalization burden is significantly lower, with signs suggesting Omicron cases are largely moderate. He did, however, state that additional evidence is needed to be certain.
It should be noted that the forecasted time is also election time in India, with a number of states — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa — scheduled to hold Assembly Elections at that time.
Also Read: Two Omicron cases detected in Karnataka.