Political parties are well-aware that the Assembly Polls of 2022 will decide their fate in Indian politics. The five states that underwent assembly polls are Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand, Punjab, and UP. But the Punjab and UP polls will have the largest impact on future politics.
The 5 states have a total of 690 Assembly seats, with UP at 403. On the other hand, Punjab has 117 seats that will impact the parties at the national level too. The political changes at the various levels in Punjab and UP are a sign that the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be a difficult ride for every political party.
For Punjab, there are chances that Congress might lose the state and AAP can form a government in It. For UP, the BJP might win or lose. So, Punjab has 13 seats, and UP has 80 seats in the Lok Sabha, which can change the scenario of national politics.
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If Congress loses Punjab, then there will be further internal conflict in the party at all levels. Also, there will be a strong demand for a New Leader and criticism of the Gandhi family’s decisions for the state. In a worse scenario, Congress might not even get a chance to form an alliance government in the state.
For now, there is a wave in favour of AAP in Punjab, because voters are looking to choose a new party other than the SAD and Congress. This speculation seems stronger because the government in Punjab has changed after every term.
A New Chapter for the Aam Aadmi Party:
Every voter wants to have good access to civic services like education, hospitals, and electricity. So, this is what the AAP provides them. The BJP has always stepped into Punjab politics, with the Akali Dal leading the alliance. So, it does not have a traditional base in Punjab. Also, the PM is not popular in Punjab like he is in other states. Furthermore, the voters have been affected by the issue of farm laws and farm protests that have not helped the BJP. Consequently, it is an added advantage to the AAP.
Arvind Kejriwal has a strong personality cult with a good share of support. Also, his background reinstates his simple image as a common and corrupt-free man. If he can capture the attention of a culturally rich state with a religious heritage, then it will be something new in Indian politics.
Sikhism has been a predominant religion in Punjab and has been at the centre of Punjab politics. So, the entry and success of the AAP in the state will change the basis of Punjab and, likewise, Indian politics.
In case AAP wins Punjab, it will extend its reach in the national politics and impact other states like Gujarat in the future Polls. Also, the party will become a key opposition for BJP at the centre rising in the Anti-BJP front, as the TMC did in the last Assembly Polls.
The BJP-Angle:
The lower voting percentage has brought hope to the Congress party. For BJP, the AAP is a lesser concern, because it has the advantage of having the Congress Party as its prime competitor.
In case Congress is unable to win them, the regional parties like TMC, NCP, DMC, RJD, SP and other regional parties can take the opportunity to create an alternative with a decreased share for Congress against BJP. In that case, the BJP will have to change their way of politics to tackle the new regional parties, and the party will have to focus on regional and individual seats in the Lok Sabha to win.
It is possible that BSP, BJD and YSR Congress might not be against BJP in the next parliamentary elections, but the fast-paced developments will happen after March 10 because it will give a clear analysis of the mood of the nation.
If the BJP loses UP, then the opposition will get a huge win and have the scope to outcast the BJP soon and decrease its seats in 2024. But, it will also make the BJP more aggressive, increasing their difficulty in the long run. In contrast, if it wins, it will work on its motive to bring other non-BJP states under the saffron party with new zeal.
Summing up,
If the results of the election are similar to the pre-election phase with BJP winning the UP and Congress winning Punjab, then the situation will be favourable to the BJP for the 2024 elections.
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