After the statement of CM Mamata Banerjee over forming a coalition without the Congress against the BJP, Telangana CM KCR’s meeting with CM Udhhav Thackery has raised new speculations. There is an uncertainty of the need for Congress in a Coalition against RSS-BJP after regional parties performed better against BJP than Congress.
In the past few months, the BJP has lost a lot of allies, like its oldest ally, Shivsena, and the Akali Dal in Punjab. These parties are now eyeing an opportunity to join the national coalition against the BJP and the centre. Also, these political parties are not just interested in becoming a part of the opposition coalition, but rather they are eyeing becoming one of the frontrunners.
Irrespective of the form, structure, and programme of the opposition, the BJP will surely face a challenge to a bigger national coalition in the 2024 elections than in the one of 2019. Also, in case the BJP loses UP, there will be a bigger coalition that will direct the future course of politics.
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The presidential elections later this year will be a significant test for analyzing the power of the BJP in the political sphere. No doubt, the BJP has a complete majority in Parliament, but we cannot deny that the results of the five ongoing assembly elections will have a major impact on the presidential elections. It would either be a sign of the BJP’s strong position in national politics or a sign of the decline of the BJP in the future.
At the same time, swinging parties like the Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress, and JD (U) can go against the BJP if needed. All these activities will set the stage for the Gujarat elections that will take place next year.
Role of Congress:
An aspect that creates confusion in this scene is the role of Congress in a coalition of opposition. After winning West Bengal with a thumping majority against the BJP, Congress, and Communist Parties, Mamata Banerjee has set out on a mission to increase the national weight of TMC. She is possibly eyeing to lead the opposition’s coalition against the BJP and for that she has to oust Congress. Moreover, she has a chance to express her anti-congress views.
Other political parties, such as the NCP and the Shiv Sena, have stated that there can be no national coalition without Congress, but they are sceptical of Rahul Gandhi leading the charge. Also, the leaders of these parties, Mr. Sharad Pawar and Mr. Uddhav Thackery share a good relationship with Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. They have even formed a coalition government against the BJP in Maharashtra.
At this point, the main motto of the national coalition would be to keep the BJP out of power. For that, they need to get rid of any kind of internal conflict among themselves. Hostility toward Congress will be an impediment to competing with the BJP. The decision to form a third alliance without the BJP and Congress would in turn cause personal damage to Mamata Banerjee.
Also, the assembly polls in five states (Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Goa, Uttarakhand, and Punjab) will give a clear idea of the potential of the Congress at this time. So, Mamata Banerjee might have to correct her perspective if it performed well.
Lastly, there can be no alternative to the BJP until the coalition of the opposition agrees on a common goal. The fact remains that the BJP still has mass support across the country, and PM Modi is a tough competitor. He will make sure to give fierce competition to any national coalition against the BJP.
Summing Up,
The opposition, and particularly the regional parties, has the advantage of gaining an understanding at the grass-root levels. For instance, it has an idea about the sufferings of the masses from poverty, unemployment, or the Covid-19 situation. So, the best way to emerge as an alternative is to keep differences aside, and agree on united goals, or else the coalition won’t last long.
An example of this can be seen in the Maharashtra government, where 3 parties with different ideologies came together to remove the BJP from power with a common minimum programme that has been successful in avoiding conflicts. Consequently, rather than focusing on internal conflict that will cause self-damage, it is time to keep differences aside, so there can be no coalition without Congress against the BJP.
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