The Russian army has invaded Ukraine. Following this, there is a significant drop in the stock market around the world, including India. On the global market, crude oil has achieved a seven-year high of $100 per barrel. As a result, there is a chance that the price of LPG gas, along with petrol and diesel, may rise in India.
Simultaneously, India purchases up to 49 per cent of its defence goods from Russia, which will be affected by the war. In such a case, the impact of conflict can range from the army’s arsenal to common people’s kitchens. Many students from India prefer to study medicine in Ukraine and Russia. However, due to the ongoing conflict, students are concerned about their future.
Trade between India and Russia
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will undoubtedly have an impact on India, but it will be small. The basic reason for this is that trade between Russia and India is presently minimal. Russia accounts for 0.8 per cent of India’s overall exports. At the same time, Russia accounts for barely 1.5 per cent of overall Indian imports.
This obviously indicates that the war between Russia and Ukraine will have no direct impact on India. In 2020, India-Russia business connections dropped by 17%.
Economic relations between India and Ukraine
There seems to be little trade between India and Ukraine. On a significant basis, India only imports cooking oil from Ukraine. Ukraine accounted for 74% of India’s total sunflower oil imports last year. Aside from that, there is a significant export-import of plastics and polymers. Many large Indian corporations, including Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy’s Labs, and Sun Group, have markets in Ukraine.
A look at the factors that will be affected by the war;
Education
Russia and Ukraine are popular destinations for Indian medical students. Every year, a huge number of Indian students study medicine in Ukraine and Russia. This can be shown by the fact that there are currently approximately 4,500 students in Russia, while over 5,000 Indian students are stranded in Ukraine. More than 50,000 students are enrolled in both nations. In such a situation, in the midst of the war, there has been a loss for the students who are currently studying in these countries, but it has also exacerbated the problems of the youth who were considering studying in Ukraine or Russia.
Defence
Russia is the world’s leading arms manufacturer. Every year, India acquires 49 per cent of Russia’s overall armament imports. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, during his visit to Russia on December 7, 2021, struck a deal for 6 lakh AK-203 rifles, which is currently pending. Aside from that, the S-400 missile is still yet to reach India. The import of these weapons will almost certainly be hampered in such a situation owing to conflict. Weapons were to be manufactured in Amethi in collaboration with Russia, but work has not yet begun.
Fuel
Russia is India’s primary supplier of petroleum products. Petroleum goods make up more than half of all imports. In the fiscal year 2020-21, India imported $5.5 billion from Russia, $3.7 billion of which was just for petroleum products. In addition, India imports coal worth Rs 4.87 thousand crores from Russia each year to generate power. Corrosion is also anticipated to have an impact on coal supplies.
Not only that but as a result of the fight’s impact on the global oil market, the price of LPG gas, including petrol and diesel, in India is expected to rise. Natural gas accounts for 6% of total fuel usage in India. India imports 56% of this 6% from countries such as Russia, Qatar, and Norway. In such a case, the price of natural gas may rise, including that of petroleum.
The export and import of petroleum will be hampered in many nations as a result of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Because India imports the most petroleum from countries such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the impact on India will be minimal. In 2021, India imported 135.6 million tonnes of coal from Russia. This was lower than in 2020.
Similarly, barely 1% of India’s total petroleum imports in 2021 were from Russia. In such a case, it is evident that India is less reliant on countries like Russia and Ukraine for other resources, including petroleum, and thus the impact will be minimal.
Space
Rakesh Sharma became the first Indian to fly into space on April 3, 1984, with the assistance of Russia. After three decades, Russia and India have reunited to accomplish the Gaganyaan mission. There is a plan under this to send three Indians to space by 2022, for which the government is paying more than ten thousand crores. The cause of the war is now likely to have an impact on the Gaganyaan mission as well.
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