After the defeat of the BJP against TMC with a large share of votes, the notions about decreasing public support and popularity of the party started emerging in the political field. With all the big BJP stalwarts and concentration of massive resources in the state, it has been unable to set a base for itself in the state. Moreover, it has reported a 50% strike rate in the recent by-elections of the country and states. This has raised questions on its electoral performance and the popularity of the party in the States of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur are a bit doubtful.
But, in the recent meetings of the party, PM Narendra Modi displayed confidence in the strong stature of the party in the coming years. He said that BJP has sufficient strong candidates who work committedly for society, unlike for just one family. Other than the words of PM himself, Prashant Kishore (the political campaign handler of Mamta Banerjee) said that BJP shall be a centre of politics in the coming years despite the belief that his popularity has decreased.
“The BJP is going to be in the centre of Indian politics, whether they win, whether they lose — like it was for the first 40 years for the Congress. The BJP is going nowhere. Once you secure a 30% vote at the India level, you are not going away in a hurry,” Prashant Kishore said.
He continued, many believe that BJP shall have reduced numbers in the upcoming and other future elections owing to bad governance, efforts of communal polarization, and manipulation of governmental bodies. Even inflation, economy, farmers’ protest, and handling of the second wave of Covid-19 have been an issue that shall work against the party.
As per his assessment, BJP shall not diminish or go anywhere from the spotlight of Indian politics for the upcoming decades. Kishore has been the political campaign handler of BJP in its 2014 elections but now works in the rival camp. His comment came after Congress’s Rahul Gandhi said that PM Modi and BJP are counting the final days in office and shall soon be out from the government.
“Unless you examine, understand and take cognizance of his (Modi’s) strength, you will never be able to put [in place] a counter to defeat him,” Prashant Kishor said. “The problem that I see is that most people are not spending enough time on understanding his strengths, understanding what is making him popular. Only if you know, you can find a counter.”
Prashant Kishor pointed to a fragmented voter base in the country, saying, “If you look at the electorate level, it is a fight between one-third and two-thirds. Only one-third of people are voting for the BJP or want to support the BJP. The problem is that the two-third side is so fragmented that it is divided into 10, 12 or 15 political parties, and that is primarily because of the decline of the Congress.”
In the past, there have been talks about a particular party in power and its winning and losing streak. The reason for this is periodic elections and anti-incumbency that appear to have an impact on the voting trends. Prashant Kishore says that Rahul Gandhi fails to grasp the situation even now. On the other hand, PM Modi with the assistance of a strong team including Home Minister Amit Shah has changed the game of politics with his moves. He has successfully gotten rid of the previous political setups from the time of Independence. A big reason for this is the experience of PM Modi.
Prashant Kishor also shared that, If we talk about PM’s political journey, then there are a few qualities in him that sets him apart from his rivals. He began his journey with RSS and travelling across the country, he has a great understanding of the ideology and perspective of people at large. He worked as an RSS supporter and was one of the protesters during the Emergency.
Then, he joined BJP and was a party worker. He used to organize campaigns and work among the crowd. He held various positions in the party before becoming the CM of Gujarat and then became PM. This experience gives him an understanding of what people want him to do or see, and he uses it in the correct place.
BJP is not a party that becomes active only during election time, rather it’s active all the time strategizing, planning, and executing its campaigns around the year. Along with that, the Public Opinion towards a government also comes from the work and decisions of the government.
Some might argue that the government did not work up to the mark in case of demonization and the second wave of Covid. But, it has compensated by introducing several noteworthy and significant schemes for the development of the country whether it’s providing houses, building washrooms, or taking initiatives for providing access to clean drinking water.
BJP might lose in some states in the upcoming elections, but it has all eyes set on the state of UP. BJP will ensure complete commitment towards winning the most populated state of the country. Additionally, BJP has the face of CM Yogi Adityanath, who has the support of the party high command. At the same time, he has managed to make a space for himself and get a certain level of popularity in state politics.
BJP has another benefit to its side, which is Gandhi’s. It believes that Rahul Gandhi is the biggest asset for the BJP because him taking the seat of the main opposition is going to work for BJP. The recent case where Gandhis showed a poor show in handling the internal crisis in Punjab congress is also a reason.
They misjudged the situation and sided with Navjot Singh Sidhu, humiliating the prominent leader Captain Amrinder Singh who resigned from his post and left the party. It is also important to understand that Gandhis have been the centre of the Congress Party for years now, but they were not its founders. Congress was founded by Allan Octavian Hume and Dadabhai Naoroji.
Interestingly, during the Lakhimpur Kheri Violence, Priyanka Gandhi dominated the news and gave hope to Congress and opposition over her actions. She was compared to her Grandmother Indira Gandhi, but is this enough to take the boat of Congress ahead? She has the charge of UP congress and has a bigger role to play in the upcoming elections. Furthermore, she is also competent to build new and beneficial alliances. But, congress still lacks the quality to connect at the grassroots level.
Meanwhile, the leadership controversy in Congress has garnered a good amount of attention. In the CWC meeting, the open letter of G-23 (senior leaders of Congress) over the leadership crisis in the party created a stir. Sonia Gandhi is the interim president of the party, and there are rumours rife that Rahul Gandhi might soon take the reins of the party in his hands again.
The lack of introspection, acknowledgement of feedback, and no internal elections for the party president since 1998 works against the party. It has also given an opportunity to people for questioning its centrist ideology by inducing leftist faces like Kanhaiya Kumar and Jignesh Mevani that crafted reservations among the party-seniors.
Even there is not much hope in congress for other opposition parties. Mamta Banerjee is at a good political stature after defeating BJP in West Bengal, and she is expanding BJP by inducing congresspersons in TMC from Goa, Tripura, and Meghalaya. Similarly, NCP and APP are increasing the influence of their parties in New states.
The results of some recent elections on state and national levels have been different from expected. The results differ at the national and state levels owing to different priorities giving rise to some new voter behaviour and voting trends. If the Modi Magic continues with the same performance of Congress and opposition, then BJP is likely to retain its power.
So, the Answer to the question that Will BJP and PM Modi be outcasted from the spotlight of national and regional politics in the upcoming years lies in Congress. Congress is the biggest rival of BJP in national politics. The work of congress internally and externally will answer the question.
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