The crucial Uttar Pradesh elections are less than 7 months away in 2022. Uttar Pradesh is the most populated state of India with a good influence on the seats in the national parliament and national politics.
The political state of Uttar Pradesh has given some of the biggest and influential Prime Ministers like Chaudhary Charan Singh, V.P Singh, etc to the country. The region has been the constituency of politicians like Narendra Modi, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Jawaharlal Nehru, etc.
It is expected that covid-19, communalism, and casteism can be the most important issues in the upcoming UP elections. Every party is targeting specific castes and communities in the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh.
There are attempts like the “Brahmin bhaichara sammelan” by BSP and the use of words like “Abba Jaan” by the BJP etc. The political scenario is getting more and more heated because the elections in Uttar Pradesh stand between the National elections held every 5 years.
While the issue of Ram Mandir and inclusion of 39 castes in the OBC category might work in the favor of BJP. But, there is still a state of confusion on whether the opposition parties will come together in the 403 seat Assembly to defeat the saffron party.
In the previous Uttar Pradesh elections the major political alliance was built by the collaboration of Congress and the Samajwadi Party.
On the other hand, BSP fought the elections against SP, BJP, and Congress. In the 2019 National elections, the BSP and SP came together against the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. However, both times BJP emerged as the winner in the battle.
Congress, the main opposition party of BJP at the National level has not been able to recover its primary position in UP politics after the 90s. The Ram Mandir and Mandal commission issues in the 90s cropped up during the reign of Congress at the national level.
These issues had a big impact on UP politics, detaining Congress over its monopoly in the state. This time even the BSP and SP have resisted coming together, standing against BJP.
In that case, it might be possible that the votes shall either be in the favour of BJP’s Yogi government or against it. On many occasions, the opposition has acknowledged the fact that a harmonious collaboration is essential to defeating the giant BJP.
But, they have also shown divisions, disagreements, and cross objectives. However, in the case of a hung parliament, the opposition might come together to form a government and keep the BJP out of power.
In these complex dynamics of UP elections, the BJP won 312 seats out of 403 in the state assembly. It got 40% votes in 2017 and 50% votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
When the BSP was at its peak in politics in 2007, it secured 30% votes. The SP was at its peak in 2012 polls with 29.15% votes. Congress recorded a poor performance with 6.25% votes in 2017.
The Congress was unable to perform even though Priyanka Gandhi had concentrated all her power in Uttar Pradesh. There have been loud noises by Priyanka Gandhi and the UP congress against the Yogi regime in the past 1 year and it has declared itself open for alliances.
The issue is that BSP has made clear that it’s not keen on any alliances. The SP has also announced that it will not Ally with any major parties and rather collaborate with small regional parties.
The BSP and SP have avoided participating in the opposition met by Congress. The caste alliances might make an impact on the election results.
The opposition has set its eyes on dethroning BJP from power in the state, preparing to take on the BJP in the 2024 national elections.
It will be important to know about the further steps of the opposition to analyze the possible results of the upcoming UP elections. The decisions by the opposition shall make a big difference in the elections next year and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.